Horse Racing Winning Distances Explained

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The meeting finishes with an aggregate distance of As you can see, spread betting can be quite tricky and also quite costly for when it throws up a shock result.

One of the things that you need to note is that the maximum number of lengths that will be counted per race is 12 lengths for a flat race and 30 lengths for a national hunt race.

Meetings that have 3 or more races that have been abandoned will see this bet become void and stakes returned. If just one or two races are determined to be void, then these races will automatically be applied a default winning distance of 6 lengths for National Hunt and 2 lengths for the flat.

For these bets you are able to apply quite a bit of strategy to make more informed picks, and hopefully, more money as a result.

Here are some of our top tips for betting on aggregate distance for horse racing. If you are completely new to this type of betting market, then you may be wondering how to go about determining the average for each meeting.

The fact that bookies will offer a default distance of 6 lengths for National Hunt and 2 lengths for the flat would suggest that this would be a good place to start.

You could simply take the average and then compare that to the line that has been set. The best practice for these bets is to work through each race in the meeting individually and then determine how well a horse might run in it.

You generally find that races that are closer in price are closer at the finish. You can then take your default race distance and decide if it will be less or more.

In this case, it will likely be less. They are likely going to go on to win by a considerable distance as well, so you can use the odds to determine that this race might be higher than the default distance.

A common mistake is people trying to run similar margins for flat racing as they do for National Hunt. The races on the flat are much shorter, so you need to bear this in mind.

With flat racing the cumulative distance can be a good place to start for the meeting. The former is intuitive, the latter less so.

The official handicapper has detailed his policy with respect to handicapping here. Given the wide range of inputs that he states go into his handicapping decisions, we should find a relationship between changes in handicap mark and the race categories examined in the previous section.

A variable that takes into account handicap mark changes and winning distances is defined as follows:. Graph 4 below shows winning distance on the x-axis and handicap changes winner to third on the y-axis.

Handicap changes per length are lower for races that take place in Soft going. The median difference is 0. So for with winning distances of 2 lengths, median handicap changes in Soft going are ca.

Handicap changes per length are higher for High Class races. The difference is 0. With winning distances lower in High Class races, it appears as if the handicapper applies a standard handicap increase to the rating of winners regardless of Race Class.

Handicap changes per length are higher for races with larger Field Sizes. As with Race Class, it appears as if the handicapper applies a standard handicap increase to the rating of winners regardless of Field Size.

ANOVA is used to check if the differences seen in the graphs above are statistically significant. Table 4 below shows the handicapper does take into account Going, Field Size and Race Class in the handicap changes he applies to winning horses — the p-values show that each category explains a significant component of the lbperL variable.

In the next section we examine if sufficient account is taken of the different race categories.

If the handicapper takes sufficient account of race categories it should be the case that horses run equally well in their next race.

The variable PctBtn thanks to Simon Rowlands of Timeform for suggesting this variable, for example here is defined as the percentage of horses beaten next time out by the winner of each race.

If the handicapper has done his job, there should be no difference in the average PctBtn variable by race category.

ANOVA is used again. Table 5 contains the results. The results for Field Size are statistically significant. It appears as if the handicapper does not raise the handicap mark of winners of large Field Size races by enough, since they beat a higher proportion of their rivals next time out than winners of races in other categories.

In addition to the obvious effect of Trip and Going on winning distances, Field Sizes and Race Class are also significant contributors.

Whilst the handicapper appears to take these factors into account in setting handicap marks, in the case of large fields size handicap winners it appears that winners are insufficiently penalised.

It is a small step to suggest that placed horses from large Field Size races are worthy of particular attention next time out. You are commenting using your WordPress.

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Initially when a horse first goes racing it is likely the optimum distance will be decided on several factors including how the horse has performed at home in different scenarios and the preferred distance of the horses parents and other relatives.

For more experienced horses, past performance over the distance travelled and other comparable distances can be an excellent indication of their anticipated handling of future trips.

A simple example of this could be that the horse has raced 25 times yet all of its 4 wins have came on the same distance. Alternatively a trainer may have decided the horse needs to compete over a longer or shorter distance based on how it has raced.

With the Distance setting, you can specify a distance range as required. Your selection will limit the query to races that fall within the distance range chosen.

The same theory applies to the race distance categories relating to previous runs of the horse. Comments -.

With the Previous Distance Beaten setting, you can specify a range of distance that the horse was beaten by in its previous race.

This particular system builder category looks at the horses previous race and to the distance it finished ahead of the next finishing horse.

It is vital you are aware it does not just include winning horses, to set this paramater you will need to set the previous placing category at 1. If you do not specify a previous placing you will receive mixed results.